On to the semis

Capello and his team don’t look so bad now, do they? The Argie “wizards” also went down to Germany 4-0. Incidentally, am I the only one who has the sense that the paid pundits watch something completely different? On the beeb I read that Argentina showed no likelihood of breaking down the Germans: for 70 minutes, until Germany made it 2-0, against the run of play and due to a strange defensive breakdown, Argentina controlled the game, had a goal disallowed for offside and created 6-7 decent chances. Schweinsteiger was adequate not brilliant: he did well on the 3rd goal but only because Higuain was back defending and made a pathetic attempt at a tackle. The invincible Brazilians went down to a better Dutch team (and rest assured, despite his characteristic honesty in claiming responsibility, it was not Carlos Dunga’s fault). (Interesting how Brazil lost its composure when it fell behind: I feel this was a bit of payback for their fluky win over a much better Argentina in the 2008 Copa America.) In all of the gnashing of teeth that always accompanies England’s exit from the World Cup finals no-one among the many paid pundits ever says that there are a lot of sighs of relief. No-one ever looks forward to playing England, as “bad” as the teams are. Just as no-one looks forward to playing Germany. Why? In basketball it’s called the “press”. When you play either team you’re in for 90 minutes of relentless physical press. Germany have proven to be much more disciplined at it and – let this be said – produce, position-for-position – slightly better players. Capello turned around the discipline but he just didn’t have the quality that we thought he had. For the future? For Euro? Probably not enough quality but England will qualify if the FA does indeed stick with Fabio and may go far (only to fall short, likely). Four years out it depends on whether new talent arrives.
Which brings us to Germany and the other three teams left standing. Germany lacks a Der Kaiser (Beckenbauer) or Mattheus. Can they win on overall team strength? (They have no top-bracket players equivalent to the incomparable der Kaiser or Mattheus.) It says here “no”. Uruguay (Forlan), Spain (David Villa) and Holland (Sneijder) each have a genuine top-bracket player who’s come good at the right time. Since all four have strong supporting casts (especially Spain) it’s going to come down to which of these provides that extra bit of quality needed to win. My money’s now on Sneijder. He was the main reason that Inter did the triple and he’s continued to play at that level. He has what Matt Busby called “vision” and he has it more than anyone else right now. Fortune is running with him, too – witness his only headed goal for Holland. Very pleased to see Forlan step into the limelight. United fans were all wrong about him. I think I said at the time (i.e. when he played for the Reds) how he reminds me of Law. Not as fast – and not quite as good – but he too has Vision and goalscoring instincts. The rest of the team are not quite there, though, compared to Holland and, plus the Sneijder factor, I’d be surprised if he gets into the Final. Germany could get past Spain – who may not be physical enough – but if they do Holland will reverse 1974 in the Final, which would be nice.
A number of stars have not performed but Rooney was a disaster. How can someone that good lose it so badly? Here’s a theory. It was mainly the marriage of huge expectations and the jabuliya plus a bit of cussedness. The center of Rooney’s game has always been his stellar ballstriking. He’s a human textbook. His technique for the classic instep kick, I mean. And not just technique. He has great balance and the ability to adjust to wherever the ball is. Even when the other parts of his game have been off in the past, which happens, football at EPL level is so fast that the margins for error are very small, he’s always been able to terrorize keepers with his shot. No-one, plainly, can hit the jabuliya full with the instep so this is not just Rooney’s problem. Paradoxically, his perfect technique makes it harder for him to make the small adjustments needed to get it on target with enough speed and control. (Incidentally the ball is unstable because of its touted “most perfect roundness” – like when golf balls were smooth, at a threshold velocity (which varies according to atmospheric conditions) the airflow around the ball becomes turbulent or “chaotic” and its flight is completely unpredictable. I suspect this is a case of marketing geniuses prevailing over the technicians, who surely must have known that the ball’s flight is unstable. I will be interesting to see if the authorities persist with it. I’ve heard that the Bundesliga used it this past season which may account for a lot of the German success - they’re just more familiar with its idiosyncracies – notice how hard it is control.) With his “rock of Gibraltar” gone, for the first time in his life Rooney lost confidence. Just at a time when the Nation was looking to him for magic. No-one wonder he looked scared. Not just his shots at goal but his pass weightings, which are normally superb, were all off. For once in his life he may even have had that emotion known to us lesser beings – please don’t let the ball come to me! Imagine yourself in Rooney’s shoes feeling a loss of that which had always been “there” for you at a time when all of England was looking to you. Rooney is mentally tough but that’s too much.
Which brings me to the last little bit, which is not so sympathetic. I think he gave up. It was his mental defence against losing the certainties in his life. He would have started to buy into the rubbish about Capello in the media and no doubt sowed by some of the disaffected in the camp, most notably, Terry (who, to his disgrace, did not give of his best against Germany). He would have used this to say to himself “Wayne, you’re being wrongly used by the f—g disciplinarian Itie; when England lose he’ll be gone and it’ll be back to someone who worships you.” Depending on what happens with the ball and with Wayne I think that this can be overcome (but Terry has to go). Plainly Capello was getting more out of Rooney by treating him as an adult in the qualifying run. Wayne will get over his funk – he loves the game, it’s at the center of his being.