Post Mortem (Again)
While I do not believe, despite the media pundits, that the German team is any better than England (they were the beneficiaries of karma and with luck we’ve heard the end of their incessant whining about Geoff Hurst’s 2nd goal in 1966) it is clear that Capello does not have the magic needed to transmute lead into gold. We were foolish to think he did. He is a top class manager. If England cannot win with Capello they cannot win, period. And they cannot win. The Moore-Charlton equivalency holds. I’d let myself think that Rooney is an elite player: he has proven that he isn’t, he was flat-out awful. I still like the lad and that think he’ll bounce back for the Reds but Charlton equivalent he ain’t. Similarly, Lampard + Gerrard does not equal Bobby Moore. Gerrard has definitely gone back; I hope it’s not permanent but I fear that it is. On top of this, England fielded a poor defence. Terry has also gone back: he played very badly vs Germany. Upson simply doesn’t belong at this level although he showed great heart by scoring. Johnson is marginal. Cole is the only truly international class defender among them now. The others (Defoe, Barry, Milner, Cole, Heskey) are adequate if there were the M-C equivalency. SWP isn’t good enough nor Crouch, despite his goalscoring stats. James was ok as it turned out. Finally, all of the rabbiting on about formation is irrelevant claptrap.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Monday, June 21, 2010
Goal scoring in the World Cup Finals
I decided to look at whether the 2002 ball had any impact on goal scoring. I think that the answer is "no" subject to a caveat. Here's the post-war record.
matches goals goals/match
2006 64 146 2.28
2002 64 160 2.50
1998 64 171 2.67
1994 52 139 2.67
1990 52 114 2.19
1986 52 132 2.54
1982 54 148 2.74
1978 38 102 2.68
1974 38 97 2.55
1970 32 95 2.97
1966 32 83 2.59
1962 32 87 2.72
1958 35 126 3.60
1954 26 140 5.38
1950 24 95 3.96
Avg 2.94
The caveat is that the matches between the "big" countries may have more goals. The averages are brought up by the persistence of blow-out matches against outclassed teams.
I decided to look at whether the 2002 ball had any impact on goal scoring. I think that the answer is "no" subject to a caveat. Here's the post-war record.
matches goals goals/match
2006 64 146 2.28
2002 64 160 2.50
1998 64 171 2.67
1994 52 139 2.67
1990 52 114 2.19
1986 52 132 2.54
1982 54 148 2.74
1978 38 102 2.68
1974 38 97 2.55
1970 32 95 2.97
1966 32 83 2.59
1962 32 87 2.72
1958 35 126 3.60
1954 26 140 5.38
1950 24 95 3.96
Avg 2.94
The caveat is that the matches between the "big" countries may have more goals. The averages are brought up by the persistence of blow-out matches against outclassed teams.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
It Begins
The players are having trouble adjusting to the new ball as they did when previous new balls were introduced. Surely they can't make them any lighter? Goalies can now kick from their hands the entire length of the pitch. Watch for a goalie scoring. The main effect so far seems to be on heading: they can't keep their headers down. It also looks like the ball swerves a bit in flight throwing off their timing on all headers not just at goal. Watch how they're needing 2-3 touches to get the ball under control and how many overhit passes. Plus they're hitting free kicks high. The way it's going no-one will use their instep any more - they'll all be inside of the foot putting a "draw" spin on the ball. The dangerous shots seems to be low ones. Besides Green's gaffe - which was not due to the ball - the Slovenian goal was badly handled after skipping off the turf. The irony with Green's howler was he'd jus shown perfect techique for low shots on a tougher, longer pot shot by Altidore a few minutes earlier. He just failed to "square up".
England's going to be ok. They created enough oportunities to win handily. If they keep getting outside the fullbacks inside the 18 yard line someone's going to connect with the crosses. I was disappointed that Lennon didn't take a few more runs at his fullback. He had 3-4 chances similar to the one when he pulled it back from the byline close to the 6 yard box - the most dangerous play in soccer. Algeria and Slovenia are not in England's league.
Argentina has been the class so far. Nice header by Heinze - notice that he actually had to stoop and that helped him keep it under the bar. Argentina played some great on the ground stuff with Messi much in evidence. One last harp (for now) about the ball - even Messi had trouble a number of times getting it under control. Also - take note inveterate Heskey critics - he fluffed a couple of point-blank chances.
The players are having trouble adjusting to the new ball as they did when previous new balls were introduced. Surely they can't make them any lighter? Goalies can now kick from their hands the entire length of the pitch. Watch for a goalie scoring. The main effect so far seems to be on heading: they can't keep their headers down. It also looks like the ball swerves a bit in flight throwing off their timing on all headers not just at goal. Watch how they're needing 2-3 touches to get the ball under control and how many overhit passes. Plus they're hitting free kicks high. The way it's going no-one will use their instep any more - they'll all be inside of the foot putting a "draw" spin on the ball. The dangerous shots seems to be low ones. Besides Green's gaffe - which was not due to the ball - the Slovenian goal was badly handled after skipping off the turf. The irony with Green's howler was he'd jus shown perfect techique for low shots on a tougher, longer pot shot by Altidore a few minutes earlier. He just failed to "square up".
England's going to be ok. They created enough oportunities to win handily. If they keep getting outside the fullbacks inside the 18 yard line someone's going to connect with the crosses. I was disappointed that Lennon didn't take a few more runs at his fullback. He had 3-4 chances similar to the one when he pulled it back from the byline close to the 6 yard box - the most dangerous play in soccer. Algeria and Slovenia are not in England's league.
Argentina has been the class so far. Nice header by Heinze - notice that he actually had to stoop and that helped him keep it under the bar. Argentina played some great on the ground stuff with Messi much in evidence. One last harp (for now) about the ball - even Messi had trouble a number of times getting it under control. Also - take note inveterate Heskey critics - he fluffed a couple of point-blank chances.
Monday, June 07, 2010
2010 World Cup Begins
FIFA has introduced a new ball as it did in 2002. Perhaps it did in 2006 and I missed it. Be that as it may, I was thrilled to see an interview with Gordon Banks on the Beeb site. They were asking him about England's goalies situation but he also ventured into territory that I think will have set some teeth on edge in the circle of panjandarums. Which is to say that he talked about how the ball has changed. He noted how light it is, next to impossible to catch and moves about erratically.
This inspired me to check if goalscoring has been boosted, since anecdotally this seems to be the case. Just going back over past World Cups, however, this is not borne out statistically. I will report on this more fully in a future blog.
I have no doubt, however, that there are more long-range goals than before the new lighter balls were made standard and, likewise, more long passes.
Some players have complained about the new ball, Others like it. Lampard, for one, likes the movement that it creates. Look for some embarassing goals. Just hope it doesn't spoil things.
FIFA has introduced a new ball as it did in 2002. Perhaps it did in 2006 and I missed it. Be that as it may, I was thrilled to see an interview with Gordon Banks on the Beeb site. They were asking him about England's goalies situation but he also ventured into territory that I think will have set some teeth on edge in the circle of panjandarums. Which is to say that he talked about how the ball has changed. He noted how light it is, next to impossible to catch and moves about erratically.
This inspired me to check if goalscoring has been boosted, since anecdotally this seems to be the case. Just going back over past World Cups, however, this is not borne out statistically. I will report on this more fully in a future blog.
I have no doubt, however, that there are more long-range goals than before the new lighter balls were made standard and, likewise, more long passes.
Some players have complained about the new ball, Others like it. Lampard, for one, likes the movement that it creates. Look for some embarassing goals. Just hope it doesn't spoil things.
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