Ponting lbw b Panesar?

While the abject failure of England on the last day of the 2nd test at Adelaide was undoubtedly one of the great surprises in cricket history, the obvious imbalance between the Oz and England teams that underlies this debacle was diagnosed by this space at the time of England’ “great triumph” of 2005. England won the Ashes by dint of crooked officiating. In their heart of hearts I suspect that the English players know this; they collapsed partly from the pressure anyone feels when they’re “in over their heads”. In fact, a collapse of that order can only be explained psychologically.

Anyone who’s played team sports at any reasonable level is familiar with the way group psychology can overtake a team. Resignation can take over in any group; it’s part of our limitless ability for rationalization. “They’re just too good for us” – that’s a way for any team to “cop out”. Once that sentiment takes over, it’s hard to fight. Likewise, when a team knows that it’s good, it always feels it can win; give the Oz lads credit, England only collapsed in the face of their relentless belief that they could win.

I believe that both groups know that the result last time was a gift of the umpires, not a measure of relative ability, moxie and performance and this fuels both the positive psychology on the Aussies side and the negative psychology on the English side. In brief, there’s no chance that the disparity in the number of lbw decisions, leaving aside their timing, in the last Ashes series in England could be by chance.

The lbw decision remains the ‘dirty secret” of cricket. In fact, on the other side, the lbws given to the last England batsmen may well have contributed to the defeat. Their timing is suspicious but, unlike the series in England, there’s no statistical basis to accuse the current umpires of bias; we shall see.

Why would this be countenanced? Sadly, given the cultural history of cricket, as a putative standard for ethical conduct, we cricket fans have to face up to the obvious; cricket is a significant business. A lot of money changes hands in the name of cricket. The refereeing scandal in Italian Serie A soccer is a reminder that cricket’s own “bung” scandals – Kallis and others – are not exceptions. My deep suspicion is that some marketing genius is behind the current soap opera; what could build interest, therefore money for everyone, more than a dramatic Ashes win by England to be followed by a revenge match “down under”? I just wonder what the rest of the script is: gallant England pick themselves off the floor or brutal Aussies enjoy payback? Whatever sells the most tickets and glues the most eyeballs to the TV (thereby exposing said eyeballs to advertising). The lbws will tell the tale. With the build-up given Panesar by the English media, I would wager that he will be picked and “lbw b Panesar” will feature on the scorecard, irrespective of the outcome. My suspicion is that the Cobbers sticking it to the Poms will play better and we’ll get another clobbering rather than a squeaker or draw.